离开中国，苹果还能生存吗？
Could Apple Exist Without Its Ties to China? Probably Not.

Several years before Donald J. Trump entered politics, Apple and its partners built massive factories across China to assemble iPhones. Mr. Trump first campaigned for president by promising his supporters that he would force Apple to make those products in America.
在特朗普进入政界的几年前，苹果及其合作伙伴在中国各地建造了大规模的工厂来组装iPhone。特朗普在第一次总统竞选中向支持者承诺，他将迫使苹果在美国生产这些产品。

Nearly a decade later, little has changed. Instead of bringing its manufacturing home, Apple shifted some production from China to India, Vietnam and Thailand. Almost nothing is made in America, and an estimated 80 percent of iPhones are still made in China.
近十年过去了，情况几乎没有改变。苹果没有将制造业务迁回美国国内，而是将部分生产业务从中国转移到至印度、越南和泰国。几乎没有任何产品在美国制造，据估计，80%的iPhone仍在中国制造。

Despite years of pressure, Apple’s business is still so dependent on China that the tech giant can’t operate without it. Moves by the Trump administration to change Apple’s behavior risk damaging the world’s most valuable publicly traded company. And any serious effort to move Apple’s production to the United States — if that is even possible — would take a titanic effort by both the company and the federal government.
尽管面临多年压力，苹果的业务仍然非常依赖中国，以至于这家科技巨头离开中国就无法运营。特朗普政府改变苹果公司行为的举动可能会损害这家全球市值最高的上市公司。任何在真正意义上将苹果的生产转移到美国的行动——如果有可能的话——都需要公司和联邦政府付出巨大的努力。

In the four days after President Trump announced taxes on Chinese exports of 145 percent last month, Apple lost $770 billion in market capitalization. It regained some of those losses after Mr. Trump gave consumer electronics manufacturers in China a temporary reprieve.
特朗普总统上个月宣布对中国出口商品征收145%关税后的四天里，苹果公司的市值损失了7700亿美元。在特朗普给中国的消费电子产品制造商暂时的喘息之后，苹果又挽回了部分损失。

On Thursday, Apple reported $24.78 billion in quarterly profit, a 4.8 percent increase from a year ago, a result of strong sales of apps and services and a new, lower-priced iPhone, which the company introduced in February. China was the only region where it didn’t increase sales during the quarter.
周四，苹果公布了247.8亿美元的季度利润，同比增长4.8%，这得益于应用程序和服务的强劲销售，以及该公司今年2月推出的价格较低的新款iPhone。中国是该公司第三季度唯一一个销售额没有增长的地区。

An Apple spokesman declined to make any company executives available for this article. During a call with Wall Street analysts on Thursday, Tim Cook, the company’s chief executive, said Apple had more than 9,000 suppliers in the United States and planned to open a factory in Houston to make artificial intelligence servers.
苹果公司的一位发言人拒绝让任何公司高管接受本文采访。周四，在与华尔街分析师的电话会议上，苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克表示，苹果在美国有9000多家供应商，并计划在休斯顿开设一家工厂，生产人工智能服务器。

David Yoffie, a professor at Harvard Business School who has written case studies on Apple, said the scrutiny was warranted because “they’re the company most at risk in a complete breakdown of the United States and China.”
撰写过苹果公司案例研究的哈佛商学院教授戴维·约菲说，这样的仔细审视是有必要的，因为“如果美国和中国彻底决裂，他们是风险最大的公司”。

Gene Munster, a managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, which invests in emerging technology companies, estimates that a complete breakdown between the United States and China would cut the value of Apple in half or more. It would drop to being a $1.6 trillion company from a $3.2 trillion company because about a third of its sales are tied to products made in China, even if it shifts some production to other countries. And the value could drop to $1.2 trillion if it also lost its sales to Chinese customers, as its rival Samsung did after a dispute between South Korea’s and China’s governments. Beijing has already discouraged iPhone purchases by government employees.
投资新兴科技公司的深水资产管理公司的管理合伙人吉恩·蒙斯特估计，美中关系的彻底破裂将使苹果的价值缩水一半或更多。它的市值将从3.2万亿美元降至1.6万亿美元，因为其约三分之一的销售额与中国制造的产品有关，即使它将部分生产转移到其他国家。如果它像竞争对手三星那样，在韩国和中国政府发生争执后失去了对中国客户的销售，其价值可能会降至1.2万亿美元。北京已经不鼓励政府雇员购买iPhone。

A major drop in Apple’s value would ripple through the stock market. The company accounts for about 6 percent of the S&P 500 index. That means for each dollar invested in the fund, about 6 cents goes to Apple stock. Investors, and most 401(k) owners, would see that stake cut in half.
苹果公司股价的大幅下跌将波及整个股票市场。该公司约占标准普尔500指数的6%。这意味着，投资于该基金的每一美元中，约有六美分流入苹果股票。投资者，以及大多数退休储蓄计划401(k)账户持有人都将看到自己的这部分资产减少一半。

Apple’s roots in China run deep. Decades ago, the company worked with Beijing to set up manufacturing in China without creating a joint venture with a Chinese company, as required of many U.S. businesses. It then perfected the art of assembling devices inexpensively in China and selling products to the country’s growing middle class. The combination has earned it more than 80 percent of global smartphone profits and generated $67 billion in annual Chinese sales.
苹果在中国扎根极深。几十年前与北京合作在中国建厂时，它没有像许多美国企业那样，按照要求与中国公司成立合资企业。然后，它完善了在中国进行低成本设备组装的技术，并将产品销售给中国不断壮大的中产阶级。这一组合为它赢得了全球智能手机利润的80%以上，并在中国创造了670亿美元的年销售额。

Over time, the company’s ties to China have strengthened. Today, not only does it make most iPhones in China, but its Chinese suppliers also assemble parts for devices made in India and manufacture components and AirPods in Vietnam.
随着时间推移，该公司与中国的联系加强了。如今，苹果不仅在中国生产大部分iPhone，其中国供应商还为印度制造的设备组装零部件，并在越南生产零部件和AirPods。

Apple’s dependency on China has made its supply chain something of a Rorschach test for the Trump administration, which wants to bring more electronics manufacturing to the United States. Apple has more power than any other electronics company to deliver on the administration’s goal. It makes more smartphones than anyone else and spends more money on components than rivals, giving it tremendous sway over where its suppliers operate.
苹果对中国的依赖使其供应链成为特朗普政府的罗夏墨迹测试，特朗普政府希望把更多的电子产品制造业带到美国。苹果比其他任何电子公司都更有能力实现政府的目标。它生产的智能手机比其他任何公司都多，在零部件上的投入也比竞争对手多，这让它在很大程度上能左右供应商对运营地点的选择。

The Trump administration wants Apple to begin that process. In an April television interview, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that “the army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little, little screws to make iPhones — that kind of thing is going to come to America.”
特朗普政府希望苹果开始这一进程。在4月的一次电视采访中，商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克说：“成百上千万人拧着小螺丝钉制造iPhone——这种事情将会发生在美国。”

But pressuring Apple to leave China could backfire. The new tariffs could force Apple to raise iPhone prices or accept smaller smartphone profits. Samsung phones, which are made in Vietnam and not subject to Chinese tariffs, could be cheaper by comparison. Apple could become less competitive at home — a red line that Mr. Trump seldom wants to cross.
但是，迫使苹果离开中国可能会适得其反。新的关税可能会迫使苹果提高iPhone的价格，或者接受更小的智能手机利润。相比之下，在越南生产、不受中国关税影响的三星手机可能更便宜。苹果在国内的竞争力可能会下降——这是特朗普不太想跨越的一条红线。

Apple has resisted making iPhones and other devices in the United States because the company’s operations team has determined that it would be impossible, said two people familiar with the analysis who spoke on the condition of anonymity. A decade ago, it had a bad experience sourcing screws and finding reliable workers to assemble a Mac computer in Texas.
两名熟悉分析的匿名人士表示，苹果一直拒绝在美国生产iPhone和其他设备，因为该公司的运营团队认为这是不可能的。十年前公司在得克萨斯州组装Mac电脑时，在采购螺丝和寻找可靠工人方面遇到了麻烦。

In China, Apple’s suppliers are able to bring together 200,000 people. They work at factories supervised by thousands of engineers with years of manufacturing experience. Most live in dormitories near the iPhone plant, where displays and other components move down assembly lines longer than a football field.
在中国，苹果的供应商能够召集20万人。他们在工厂工作，由数以千计具有多年生产经验的工程师监管。大多数人都住在iPhone工厂附近的宿舍里，在工厂，显示屏和其他部件的装配线比橄榄球场还长。

Finding that many employees and experienced engineers would be impossible in most American cities, said Wayne Lam, an analyst with TechInsights, a market research firm. He said Apple would need to develop more automated processes with robots to make up for the smaller population in the United States.
市场研究公司TechInsights的分析师韦恩·林说，在大多数美国城市都不可能找到这么多员工和经验丰富的工程师。他说，苹果需要用机器人开发更多的自动化流程，以弥补美国人口较少的不足。

Mr. Lam estimates that if Apple did set up operations in the United States, it would need to charge $2,000 for an iPhone — up from about $1,000 now — to keep its current profits. The price could drop to $1,500 in future years as the company reduced the costs of training employees and making components.
韦恩·林估计，如果苹果真的在美国开设业务，它需要将iPhone的售价从现在的1000美元提高到2000美元，才能保持目前的利润。随着公司降低培训员工和制造零部件的成本，未来几年价格可能会降至1500美元。

“In the short term, it’s not economically feasible,” Mr. Lam said. He added that it also made little sense to relocate production of a device that was nearly 20 years old and could be disrupted by a new gadget that caught on with consumers.
“短期来看，这在经济上是不可行的，”韦恩·林说。他补充说，将一款已有近20年历史的设备的生产转移到其他地方也没有什么意义，它可能会被一款受到消费者欢迎的新设备所影响。

Apple has shown a willingness to move its supply chain when there are incentives. In 2017, it began a process to make iPhones in India because the country had high taxes on imports that would have made prices increase to a point where Apple could not have claimed a slice of the world’s fastest-growing smartphone market.
苹果已经表现出在有激励措施的情况下转移其供应链的意愿。2017年，苹果开始在印度生产iPhone，因为印度对进口产品征收高额关税，这将导致价格上涨，以至于苹果无法在这个全球增长最快的智能手机市场上分一杯羹。

Today, Apple makes about 20 percent of its iPhones sold around the world in India. It also makes some components there, including the metal frame. But it relies on Chinese companies to assemble the displays and other complex parts.
如今，苹果公司在全球销售的iPhone中，约有20%是在印度生产的。它还在印度生产一些部件，包括金属框架。但它依赖中国公司组装显示屏和其他复杂部件。

Matthew Moore, who spent nine years as a manufacturing design manager at Apple, said India had another advantage that America didn’t: “Engineers, everywhere.”
马修·摩尔在苹果公司担任了九年的制造设计经理，他说，印度还有一个美国没有的优势：“到处都是工程师。”

To lure Apple and electronics companies to the United States, Mr. Moore believes, the Trump administration will need to invest in education for degrees in science, technology, engineering and math. He also thinks that the country should encourage loans for new manufacturing facilities, much as it does for housing with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
摩尔认为，为了吸引苹果和电子公司到美国来，特朗普政府将需要投资科学、技术、工程和数学学位的教育。他还认为，国家应该鼓励为新的制造业设施提供贷款，就像通过房利美和房地美提供住房贷款一样。

Last month, Apple bought itself a temporary break. Mr. Cook, who personally donated $1 million to Mr. Trump’s inauguration, lobbied the Trump administration for the exemption it gave to iPhones and other electronics from the 145 percent tax on Chinese exports. It’s temporary, though. The administration has said it plans to issue more targeted tariffs on tech products.
上个月，苹果为自己赢得了一个喘息之机。库克游说特朗普政府免除iPhone和其他电子产品对中国出口产品征收145%的关税（他个人曾为特朗普的就职典礼捐赠了100万美元）。不过，这是暂时的。特朗普政府表示，计划对科技产品征收更有针对性的关税。

Without government investments, Apple and smaller manufacturers will continue making things in China because it has excess equipment and engineers, said Mr. Moore, who started Cruz, a company that makes hardware products like blenders.
摩尔说，如果没有政府的投资，苹果和较小的制造商将继续在中国生产产品，因为中国有海量的设备和工程师。摩尔创办了生产搅拌机等硬件产品的Cruz公司。

“I don’t think the ship has sailed, but it’s absurd to think in four years we’re going to make iPhones here,” Mr. Moore said. “It would take 10 years.”
“我认为希望还是有的，但让我们四年内在美国生产iPhone的想法是荒谬的，”摩尔说。“需要十年的时间。”