印巴停火，但“脆弱”的和平能维持多久？
The Danger for India and Pakistan Has Not Gone Away
India and Pakistan have seemingly pulled back from the brink again. But so much was new about the nuclear-armed enemies’ chaotic four-day clash, and so many of the underlying accelerants remain volatile, that there’s little to suggest that the truce represents any return to old patterns of restraint.
印度和巴基斯坦似乎再一次悬崖勒马。但是，这两个拥核的敌对国家之间为期四天的混乱冲突中出现了许多新情况，而且许多潜在的导火索仍然不稳定，几乎没有迹象表明休战代表着恢复以往的克制。
A new generation of military technology fueled a dizzying aerial escalation. Waves of airstrikes and antiaircraft volleys with modern weapons set the stage. Soon they were joined by weaponized drones en masse for the first time both along the two countries’ extensive boundaries and deep into their territory — hundreds of them in the sky, probing each nation’s defenses and striking without risk to any pilot.
新一代军事技术推动了令人眼花缭乱的空战升级。在现代武器助推下，一波又一波空中打击和防空火力你来我往。很快，在两国广阔的边境线乃至领土纵深处，武器化的无人机首次大规模加入战斗——数百架无人机在空中探测两国的防御系统，在不需要飞行员承担风险的情况下实施打击。
Then the missiles and drones were streaking past the border areas and deep into India’s and Pakistan’s territories, directly hitting air and defense bases, prompting dire threats and the highest level of military alert.
随后，导弹和无人机飞掠边境地区，深入印度和巴基斯坦领土，直接袭击空军和防御基地，令双方发出严峻的警告，进入最高级的军事戒备。
Only then did international diplomacy — a crucial factor in past pullbacks between India and Pakistan — seem to engage in earnest, at what felt like the last minute before catastrophe. In a new global chapter defined by perilous conflicts, distracted leaders and a retreating sense of international responsibility to keep peace, the safety net had never seemed thinner.
直到灾难来临前的最后一刻，国际外交——这是印度和巴基斯坦过去关系缓和的一个关键因素——似乎才开始认真参与。在这个以冲突一触即发、领导人自顾不暇、维护和平的国际责任意识渐渐消退为标志的全球新时代，安全保障显得前所未有地脆弱。
“Going back historically, many of the India-Pakistan conflicts have been stopped because of external intervention,” said Srinath Raghavan, a military historian and strategic analyst.
军事历史学家和战略分析师斯里纳特·拉加万说：“回顾历史，许多印巴冲突都是由于外部干预而停止的。”
Mr. Raghavan observed that neither country has a significant military industrial base, and the need to rely on weapons sales from abroad means outside pressure can have an effect. But the positions of both sides appeared more extreme this time, and India in particular seemed to want to see if it could achieve an outcome different from previous conflicts.
拉加万指出，这两个国家都没有重要的军事工业基础，需要依赖国外的武器销售，这意味着外部压力可能会产生影响。但这一次，双方的立场似乎更加极端，尤其是印度似乎想看看，是否能取得不同于以往冲突的结果。
“I think there is a stronger sort of determination, it seems, on the part of the Indian government to sort of make sure that the Pakistanis do not feel that they can just get away or get even,” he said. “Which definitely is part of the escalatory thing. Both sides seem to feel that they cannot let this end with the other side feeling that they have somehow got the upper hand.”
“我认为，印度政府似乎有一种更强的决心，要确保巴基斯坦人不会觉得他们可以侥幸逃脱或进行报复，”他说。“这绝对是事态升级的一部分。双方似乎都觉得，不能在对方觉得是在某种程度上占上风的情况下结束这场冲突的。”
The political realities in India and Pakistan — each gripped by an entrenched religious nationalism — remain unchanged after the fighting. And that creates perhaps the most powerful push toward the kind of confrontation that could get out of hand again.
印度和巴基斯坦的政治现实——两国都受到根深蒂固的宗教民族主义的影响——在冲突之后没有改变。这或许是导致对抗再次失控的主要推力。
Pakistan is dominated by a military establishment that has stifled civilian institutions and is run by a hard-line general who is a product of decades of efforts to Islamize the armed forces. And the triumphalism of Hindu nationalism, which is reshaping India’s secular democracy as an overtly Hindu state, has driven an uncompromising approach to Pakistan.
巴基斯坦由军人阶层主导，文官体制受到扼制，其领导人是一位强硬派将军，也是数十年来武装部队伊斯兰化造就的人物。而印度教民族主义的必胜信念正在重塑印度的世俗民主，使其很大程度上成为一个印度教国家，促使印度对巴基斯坦采取不妥协的态度。
On Sunday, there was still no indication that Pakistan or India might repair their diplomatic relations, which had been frosty even before the military escalation, or ease visa restrictions on each other’s citizens. And India did not seem to be backing away from its declaration that it would no longer comply with a river treaty between the two countries — a critical factor for Pakistan, which said that any effort to block water flows would be seen as an act of war.
截至周日仍看不到双方在军事升级前就已冷淡的外交关系有恢复的迹象，或对另一国公民的签证限制会得到放宽。印度似乎也没有放弃它将不再遵守两国间河流条约的声明——这对巴基斯坦来说是一个关键因素，因为巴基斯坦表示，任何截流的行动都将被视为战争行为。
The spark for the latest fighting was a terrorist attack on the Indian side of Kashmir that killed 26 civilians on April 22. India accused Pakistan of supporting the attackers. Pakistan denied any role.
最近一次冲突的导火索是4月22日在克什米尔印度一侧发生的恐怖袭击，26名平民在袭击中死亡。印度指责袭击者得到巴基斯坦的支持。巴基斯坦否认参与其中。
The crisis ended a six-year lull in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Indian government had taken a two-pronged approach to Pakistan: trying to isolate its neighbor with minimum contact and to bolster security at home, particularly through heavily militarizing the Indian side of Kashmir.
这场危机结束了印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪的政府六年来对巴基斯坦采取的双管齐下策略。在此期间，印度政府试图孤立这个邻国，尽量减少接触，并加强国内安全，特别是通过对印控克什米尔进行大规模军事化。
Establishing a pattern of escalatory military action in response to terrorist attacks in 2016 and 2019, India had boxed itself into a position of maximal response. After last month’s attack, the political pressure to deliver a powerful military response was immediate.
2016年和2019年的恐怖袭击促使印度建立了一种不断升级的军事行动模式，导致自己只能做出最大化的回应。上个月的袭击发生后，要求作出强有力军事反应的政治压力立即显现。
But the choices for India’s military were not easy. It publicly fumbled the last direct clash with Pakistan, in 2019, when a transport helicopter went down and when Pakistani forces shot down a Soviet-era Indian fighter plane and captured its pilot.
但印度军方面临困难的选择。在2019年与巴基斯坦的最后一次直接冲突中，印度在众目睽睽之下连连失误，一架运输直升机坠毁，一架苏联时代的印度战斗机被巴基斯坦击落，飞行员被俘。
Mr. Modi’s effort to modernize his military since then, pouring in billions of dollars, was hampered by supply constraints caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine. India was also stressed by a four-year skirmish on its Himalayan border with China, where tens of thousands of troops remained on war footing until a few months ago.
从那以后，莫迪投入了数十亿美元进行军队现代化，但因俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争造成的供应限制而受阻。在中印喜马拉雅边境地区持续了四年的小规模冲突也给印度带来了压力。直到几个月前，印度在那里仍有数万军队处于战备状态。
When it came time to use force against Pakistan this past week, India wanted to put that lost prestige and those past difficulties behind it. It also sought to show a new, more muscular approach on the world stage, able to wield not just its rising economic and diplomatic power, but military might as well.
上周对巴基斯坦动武时，印度想一雪前耻，把过去遇到的困难抛诸脑后。它还试图在世界舞台上展示一种新的、更强硬的方式，不仅能够运用其不断增长的经济和外交实力，还能运用其军事实力。
Western diplomats, former officials and analysts who have studied the dynamics between India and Pakistan said that India came out of this latest conflict looking assertive and aggressive, and perhaps has established some new level of deterrence with Pakistan.
研究印度和巴基斯坦关系的西方外交官、前官员和分析人士说，印度在最近的冲突中显得自信和咄咄逼人，也许已经对巴基斯坦建立了某种新的威慑水平。
But the way the fight played out did not suggest improvement at the operational or strategic level, they said.
但他们表示，这场战斗的结果并不意味着在行动或战略层面上有所改善。
In its opening round of airstrikes, on Wednesday, India struck targets deeper inside the enemy territory than it had in decades, and by all accounts had hit close enough to facilities associated with terrorist groups that it could claim victory.
在周三的第一轮空袭中，印度打击的目标比几十年来更深入敌方领土，而且据各方称，打击的目标距离与恐怖组织有关的设施已经足够近，因此印度可以宣称取得了胜利。
Each day that followed was filled with language from both India and Pakistan suggesting that they had achieved what they wanted and were ready for restraint. But each night was filled with violence and escalation. More traditional artillery volleys across the border kept intensifying, bringing the heaviest loss of life. And the drone and airstrikes grew increasingly bold, until some of each country’s most sensitive military and strategic sites were being targeted.
接下来的每一天，印度和巴基斯坦都在用大量言论暗示他们已经达到了自己的目的，并准备转向克制的姿态。但每个晚上都充满了暴力和升级。越过边境的常规火炮攻击不断加强，造成了极为严重的人员伤亡。无人机和空袭变得越来越大胆，直到两国一些最敏感的军事和战略地点成为攻击目标。
What finally seemed to trigger the intense diplomatic pressure from the United States, with clear help on the ground from the Saudis and other Persian Gulf states, was not just that the targets were getting closer to sensitive sites — but also just what the next step in a rapid escalation ladder for two alarmed nuclear powers could mean.
在沙特阿拉伯和其他波斯湾国家的明确帮助下，最终引发美国强烈外交压力的似乎不仅仅是目标离敏感地点越来越近，还有对于两个警戒的核大国而言，事态发展迅速升级的情况下，下一步可能意味着什么。
Shortly before a cease-fire was announced late on Saturday, Indian officials were already signaling that any new terror attack against India’s interests would be met with similar levels of force.
在周六晚些时候宣布停火前不久，印度官员已经表示，任何针对印度利益的新恐怖袭击都将受到同样程度的打击。
“We have left India’s future history to ask what politico-strategic advantages, if any, were gained,” said Gen. Ved Prakash Malik, a former chief of the Indian Army.
“我们把这个问题留给印度未来的历史去评判，看看我们究竟获得了哪些政治战略优势，如果有的话，”前印度陆军参谋长韦德·普拉卡什·马利克上将说。
