美中关税下调，海量商品会涌入美国吗
‘We’re Starting to Move Everything’: Trump’s China Deal Frees Up Shipping

For weeks, Jay Foreman, a toy company executive, froze all shipments from China, leaving Care Bears and Tonka trucks piled up at Chinese factories, to avoid paying President Trump’s crippling 145 percent tariff.
数周以来，为了避免支付特朗普总统145%的巨额关税，玩具公司的高管杰伊·福尔曼暂停了所有中国发货，导致爱心熊和Tonka卡车等玩具堆积在中国的工厂里。

But as soon as his phone lit up at 4 a.m. on Monday alerting him that Mr. Trump was lowering tariffs on Chinese imports for 90 days, Mr. Foreman, the chief executive of Basic Fun, which is based in Florida, jumped out of bed and called his suppliers, instructing them to start shipping merchandise immediately.
但周一凌晨4点，当手机的提示音响起，福尔曼得知特朗普将对中国进口商品下调关税90天后，这位佛罗里达玩具公司Basic Fun的首席执行官立刻从床上跳起，致电供应商，让他们立即发货。

“We’re starting to move everything,” Mr. Foreman said. “We have to call trucking companies in China to schedule pickups at the factories. And we have to book space on these container ships now.”
“我们要把所有货物都发出来，”福尔曼表示，“必须立即联系中国物流公司安排工厂提货，而且我们现在就要预订集装箱舱位。”

If other executives follow Mr. Foreman’s lead, a torrent of goods could soon pour into the United States. While logistics experts say global shipping lines and American ports appear capable of handling high volumes over the next three months, they caution that whiplash tariff policies are piling stress onto the companies that transport goods around the world.
如果其他高管也在这么做的话，很快就会有大量货物涌入美国。虽然物流专家表示，全球航运公司和美国港口似乎能够在未来三个月内处理大量货物，但他们警告说，反复无常的关税政策正在给全球货运企业带来巨大压力。

“This keeps supply chain partners in limbo about what’s next, and leads to ongoing disruption,” said Rico Luman, senior economist for transport, logistics and automotive at ING Research.
荷兰国际集团负责运输、物流和汽车领域的高级经济学家里科·卢曼说：“这种情况让供应链上的合作伙伴对未来充满不确定性，并导致持续的混乱。”

After talks this weekend in Geneva, the Trump administration lowered tariffs on many Chinese imports to 30 percent from 145 percent. China cut its tariffs on American goods to 10 percent from 125 percent. If a deal is not reach in 90 days, the tariffs could go back up, though Mr. Trump said on Monday that they would not rise to 145 percent. Some importers may hold off on ordering from China, hoping for even lower tariffs later.
上周末在日内瓦举行谈判后，特朗普政府将许多中国进口商品的关税从145%降至30%。中国则将美国商品的关税从125%降至10%。如果90天内未能达成协议，关税可能会回调，尽管特朗普周一表示，关税不会提高到145%。一些进口商可能会推迟从中国采购商品，指望日后关税能进一步降低。

Importers weighing whether to rush goods in over the next 90 days must also determine if suppliers in China can fill those orders and get them onto vessels by the end of July. Voyages from Chinese ports to the West Coast of the United States can take two to three weeks.
那些在接下来90天内考虑是否加急进口货物的进口商，还必须确定中国的供应商能否完成订单，并在7月底前将货物装船。从中国港口到美国西海岸的航程可能需要两到三周时间。

Because the timing is tight, Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, does not expect a huge surge of imports in the coming weeks. “Ninety days is not a long runway for people in our business,” he said.
由于时间紧迫，洛杉矶港执行董事吉恩·塞洛卡预计，未来几周进口量不会出现大幅激增。他说：“对我们这个行业的人来说，90天的时间并不算长。”

Mr. Seroka added that big retailers might have sufficient products at least for a while because they had brought in large volumes of goods before Mr. Trump’s tariffs took effect in April.
塞洛卡还说，大型零售商的库存可能至少在一段时间内是充足的，因为在特朗普4月实施关税措施之前，他们已经进口了大量商品。

The 30 percent tariff is still high by historical standards, so importers may decide to pay it only for goods they really need.
按照历史标准，30%的关税仍然很高，所以进口商可能只会为那些真正急需的商品支付这笔关税。

But others may rush in shipments across the board. Mr. Foreman of Basic Fun said that while the 30 percent tax would pose a challenge to a medium-size company like his, it was manageable. He said he could discuss splitting the higher cost with his suppliers and the retailers that sold his products. At this tariff level, consumers can expect a roughly 15 percent increase in the price on some toys, he added.
但也有一些进口商可能会全面加急运输货物。Basic Fun公司的福尔曼表示，30%的关税对他这样的中型企业来说是个挑战，但尚在可控范围内。他说，他可以和供应商以及销售其产品的零售商商量分担增加的成本。他还表示，在这样的关税水平下，一些玩具的价格预计会上涨约15%。

The tariffs are one of many shocks to supply chains in recent years.
近年来，关税政策不过是冲击全球供应链的诸多变数之一。

Spending during the coronavirus pandemic led to a deluge in imports that overwhelmed ports and shipping companies. And freight costs surged. Separately, low rainfall reduced the amount of water available to the Panama Canal, allowing fewer vessels to pass through. Then, in 2023, the Houthi militia in Yemen started attacking ships in the Red Sea, forcing most shipping lines to take a long detour around the southern tip of Africa. A dockworkers’ strike last year at ports on the East Coast of the United States caused more disruption.
新冠疫情期间的消费导致进口量激增，让港口和航运公司应接不暇，货运成本也大幅上涨。另外，降雨量不足导致巴拿马运河的水量欠丰，通过运河的船只减少。2023年，也门的胡塞武装对经过红海的船只发动袭击，迫使大多数航运公司不得不选择更长的航线，绕经非洲南端。去年美国东海岸港口的码头工人罢工也给供应链再添混乱。

Overall, supply chains functioned quite well after the upheavals of the pandemic.
总体而言，在经历了疫情带来的动荡后，供应链的运转情况还算良好。

Using the huge profits they earned during the pandemic, shipping lines bought scores of new vessels. As a result, they had the spare capacity to handle surges in volume and big disruptions like the detour around Africa.
航运公司利用疫情期间赚取的巨额利润，购置了大量新船。因此，他们有额外的运力来应对货运量的激增以及像绕经非洲这样的重大干扰因素。

The impact of Mr. Trump’s tariffs has been easy to spot in trade data. In the last five weeks, bookings to ship containers from China to the United States were 45 percent below the level in the same period last year, according to data from Vizion, a logistics technology company, and Dun & Bradstreet.
特朗普关税政策对贸易的影响在数据中一目了然。物流科技公司Vizion与邓白氏数据显示，过去五周中国至美国的集装箱订舱量同比骤降45%。

The Port of Los Angeles received 31 percent fewer containers last week than during the same week in 2024, while the number of vessels visiting the port was down 20 percent, Mr. Seroka said.
塞洛卡表示，洛杉矶港上周接收的集装箱数量比2024年同期减少了31%，停靠该港口的船只数量也下降了20%。

Now, shipping lines may have to reorganize their networks again, straining capacity. As a result, shipping rates could rise as much as 20 percent in the short term, said Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, a shipping market analytics company.
现在，航运公司可能被迫再次调整航线网络，从而导致运力吃紧。航运分析机构Xeneta的首席分析师彼得·桑德指出，短期内海运价格或因此飙升20%。