“管理”委内瑞拉，特朗普将美国推向风险重重的新时代
Trump Plunges the U.S. Into a New Era of Risk in Venezuela
President Trump’s declaration on Saturday that the United States planned to “run” Venezuela for an unspecified period, issuing orders to its government and exploiting its vast oil reserves, plunged the United States into a risky new era in which it will seek economic and political dominance over a nation of roughly 30 million people.
周六，特朗普总统宣布，美国计划在未指定期限内“管理”委内瑞拉，向其政府发号施令并开采该国丰富的石油储备，令美国迈入一个风险重重的新时代——它将寻求对一个拥有约3000万人口的国家施加经济和政治主导权。
Speaking at his Mar-a-Lago private club just hours after Nicolás Maduro, the leader of Venezuela, and his wife were seized from their bedroom by U.S. forces, Mr. Trump told reporters that Delcy Rodríguez, who served as Mr. Maduro’s vice president, would hold power in Venezuela as long as she “does what we want.”
委内瑞拉领导人马杜罗及妻子被美军从卧室带走数小时后，特朗普在他的马阿拉歌私人俱乐部向记者表示，马杜罗政府的副总统罗德里格斯将继续执掌委内瑞拉政权，前提是她“按我们的要求行事”。
Ms. Rodríguez, however, showed little public interest in doing the Americans’ bidding. In a national address, she accused Washington of invading her country under false pretenses and asserted that Mr. Maduro was still Venezuela’s head of state. “What is being done to Venezuela is a barbarity,” she said.
然而，罗德里格斯公开表示无意服从美国指令。她在全国讲话中指责华盛顿以虚假借口入侵委内瑞拉，坚称马杜罗仍是该国国家元首。“对委内瑞拉的所作所为是野蛮行径，”她说。
Mr. Trump and his top national security advisers carefully avoided describing their plans for Venezuela as an occupation, akin to what the United States did after defeating Japan, or toppling Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Instead, they vaguely sketched out an arrangement that sounded like a mix of economic coercion and a guardianship over the country: The United States will provide a vision for how Venezuela should be run and will expect the interim government to carry that out in a transition period, under the threat of further military intervention.
特朗普及其高级国家安全顾问刻意避免将其委内瑞拉计划描述为占领行动——类似美国在击败日本或推翻伊拉克萨达姆·侯赛因政权后的做法。相反，他们模糊勾勒出一种混合经济胁迫与国家监护的安排：美国将为委内瑞拉的治理提供蓝图，期望临时政府在过渡时期按此执行，否则将面临进一步军事干预的威胁。
By Sunday morning, with Mr. Trump’s repeated declaration that the administration would “run” Venezuela ricocheting around foreign capitals, Marco Rubio, the secretary of state and national security adviser, complained that people were “fixating” on the president’s declaration.
截至周日上午，特朗普多次宣称政府将“管理”委内瑞拉的言论在各国政府中引发震荡。国务卿兼国家安全顾问鲁比奥抱怨，外界过度“纠结”总统的表述。
“It’s not ‘running’” he said, clearly distancing himself from Mr. Trump’s words. “It’s running policy, the policy with regards to this.”
“这并不是‘管理’，”他明确与特朗普的措辞保持距离。“而是执行政策，也就是相关的政策。”
He maintained that rather than administer the country’s operations, it would be enough to keep a quarantine on oil shipments until the post-Maduro government acted the way Washington demanded. “That’s a tremendous amount of leverage that will continue to be in place until we see changes, not just to further the national interest of the United States, which is No. 1, but also that lead to a better future for the people of Venezuela,” he said in an interview with “Face the Nation” on CBS News.
他坚称，与其直接管理委内瑞拉的日常运作，不如继续实施石油禁运，直至后马杜罗政府按华盛顿的要求行事。“这是巨大的杠杆，将持续生效直至我们看到改变，这不仅是为了推进美国的国家利益——这是首要目标——也会给委内瑞拉人民带来更美好的未来，”他在CBS《面向全国》节目采访中表示。
On Saturday, even after Ms. Rodríguez contradicted Mr. Trump, Mr. Rubio said he was withholding judgment.
周六，即便罗德里格斯女士反驳了特朗普的说法，鲁比奥仍表示不作评判。
“We’re going to make decisions based on their actions and their deeds in the days and weeks to come,” he said in an interview with The New York Times. “We think they’re going to have some unique and historic opportunities to do a great service for the country, and we hope that they’ll accept that opportunity.”
“我们将根据他们未来数日和数周的行动与表现做出决定，”他在接受《纽约时报》采访时说。“我们认为他们将获得独特的历史性机遇，为国家做出重大贡献，希望他们能把握这一机会。”
Mr. Rubio is usually careful to avoid showing any daylight between his positions and the president’s. But he had little choice on Sunday because Mr. Trump, asked directly on Saturday who, exactly, would be running the country, named Mr. Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine. He said the “people that are standing right behind me, we’re going to be running it,” he said, pointing to all three men.
鲁比奥通常会谨慎避免显露与总统立场的分歧，但周日他别无选择——周六被直接问及具体由谁管理委内瑞拉时，特朗普点名鲁比奥、国防部长海格塞斯以及参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军。“站在我身后的这些人，我们负责管理，”他指着三人说。
Mr. Trump also suggested on Saturday that while there were no American troops on the ground now, there would be a “second wave” of military action if the United States ran into resistance, either on the ground or from Venezuelan government officials.
特朗普周六还表示，尽管目前美国没有部署地面部队，但若遭遇地面抵抗或委内瑞拉政府官员的阻挠，将发起“第二波”军事行动。
“We’re not afraid of boots on the ground,” Mr. Trump said, a comment Mr. Rubio echoed on Sunday, while insisting there is no plan for a physical occupation of the country.
“我们不怕发起地面部队行动，”特朗普说。鲁比奥周日呼应了这一言论，但同时坚称目前没有实际占领该国的计划。
Mr. Trump paired that with a declaration that a key American goal was to regain access to oil rights that he has repeatedly said had been “stolen” from the United States. With those statements, the president opened a new chapter in American nation building.
特朗普还宣称，美国的一个关键目标是重新获得石油开采权——他多次称这些权利遭“窃取”。 总统的这些表态翻开了美国国家构建的新篇章。
It is one in which he hopes to influence every major political decision in Venezuela by the presence of an armada just offshore, and perhaps to intimidate others in the region. He repeated a warning to the president of Colombia, another country targeted by the administration for its role in drug trafficking, to “watch his ass.”
在这一篇章中，他希望通过部署在近海的舰队影响委内瑞拉的每一项重大政治决策，并可能以此威慑该地区其他国家。他还向哥伦比亚总统发出警告，要对方“小心着点”，哥伦比亚因贩毒问题同样被美国政府盯上。
The U.S. operation, in seeking to assert control over a vast Latin American nation, has little precedent in recent decades, recalling the imperial U.S. military efforts of the 19th and early 20th centuries in Mexico, Nicaragua and other countries.
美国此次行动旨在对一个拉美大国施加控制，这在近几十年来鲜有先例，让人联想到19世纪至20世纪初美国在墨西哥、尼加拉瓜等国的帝国式军事行动。
Mr. Trump and his aides claimed they had a legal basis for the immediate action he ordered on Friday, the extraterritorial rendition of Mr. Maduro. An indictment that dates to 2020 charged the Venezuelan leader with a series of acts related to drug trafficking. A refreshed indictment was published Saturday, one that included Mr. Maduro’s wife, Cilia Flores.
特朗普及其幕僚声称，他周五下令立即实施的域外抓捕马杜罗行动具有法律依据。2020年的一份起诉书指控这位委内瑞拉领导人涉嫌一系列贩毒相关行为，周六公布的更新版起诉书将马杜罗的妻子西莉亚·弗洛雷斯也纳入其中。
But that indictment only deals with Mr. Maduro’s alleged crimes. It did not provide a legal basis for taking control of the country, as the U.S. president declared he was doing.
但该起诉书仅涉及马杜罗被指控的罪行，并没有为美国总统宣称的接管该国提供法律依据。
Mr. Trump was unapologetic about taking that step, and in his justification, he showed he had given much thought to the oil industry.
特朗普对采取这一步骤显得理直气壮，在辩解中，他显示出自己对石油行业的深入思考。
“Venezuela unilaterally seized and sold American oil, American assets and American platforms, costing us billions and billions of dollars,” he said of resources that were being pumped out of Venezuelan bedrock. “They did this a while ago, but we never had a president that did anything about it. They took all of our property.” He added: “The socialist regime stole it from us during those previous administrations, and they stole it through force.”
“委内瑞拉单方面扣押并出售美国的石油、资产和钻井平台，给我们造成了数十亿美元的损失，”他谈及从委内瑞拉基岩开采的资源时说。“他们很久以前就这么干了，但我们从没有过一位总统采取行动。他们夺走了我们所有的财产。”他还说：“前几届政府期间，这个社会主义政权通过武力从我们手中窃取了这些资产。”
Now, he made clear, he was taking it back, and Americans would be compensated before Venezuelans became, he predicted, “rich.”
他明确表示，现在他要将这些资源夺回来，称美国人将获得补偿，并预测在此之后，委内瑞拉人会变得“富有”。
But that left many open questions. Will the United States need an occupying military force to protect the oil sector while the Americans and others rebuild it? Will the United States run the courts, and determine who pumps the oil?
但这留下了诸多悬而未决的问题：在美方及其他力量重建石油产业期间，美国是否需要驻军保护该领域？美国是否会掌管委内瑞拉的司法系统，并决定谁来开采石油？
Will it install a pliant government for some number of years, and what happens if a legitimate, democratic election is won by Venezuelans with a different vision for their country?
美国是否会在未来数年扶持一个顺从的政府？如果委内瑞拉人通过合法的民主选举选出具有不同国家愿景的领导人，将会发生什么？
All of these questions, of course, could enmesh the United States into exactly the kind of “forever wars” which Mr. Trump’s MAGA base has warned against.
当然，所有这些问题都可能使美国陷入特朗普“让美国再次伟大”运动支持者们一直警告的那种“永无止境的战争”。
For much of the 20th century, the United States intervened militarily in smaller countries in the Caribbean and Central America. But Venezuela is twice the size of Iraq, with challenges that may prove just as complex.
20世纪的大部分时间里，美国多次对加勒比海和中美洲的小国进行军事干预。但委内瑞拉的面积是伊拉克的两倍，其面临的挑战可能同样复杂。
“Any democratic transition will require the buy-in of pro-regime and anti-regime elements,” John Polga-Hecimovich, a Venezuela scholar at the U.S. Naval Academy, said in an interview.
“任何民主过渡都需要政权支持者和反对者的认同，”美国海军学院委内瑞拉问题学者约翰·波尔加-赫西莫维奇在采访中表示。
One crucial test, he said, is how the Venezuelan armed forces react. “If it splinters, with some backing a transition and others not, things could get violent,” he said. “On the other hand, a unified force would help legitimize whatever government comes next."
他说，一个关键的考验是委内瑞拉军队的反应。“如果军队分裂，部分支持过渡而部分反对，局势可能会走向暴力；另一方面，一支统一的军队将有助于使下一届政府获得合法性。”
