特朗普如何胁迫贸易伙伴：不给钱就面临高额关税
Trump’s Demand to Trading Partners: Pledge Money or Get Higher Tariffs

President Trump’s tariff threats have turned into a play for cold, hard cash as he tries to leverage U.S. economic power to cajole other nations to make multibillion-dollar investments in order to maintain access to America’s market.
特朗普总统的关税威胁已演变为真金白银的争夺，他试图利用美国的经济实力迫使其他国家进行数十亿美元的投资，以维持进入美国市场的资格。

The president’s second-term trade agenda has clear echoes of his “Art of the Deal” approach, essentially demanding that trading partners show him the money in the form of investment pledges or else face astronomically high tariffs.
特朗普总统第二任期的贸易议程明显呼应了他在《交易的艺术》中展现的风格，本质上是要求贸易伙伴以投资承诺的形式出示资金，否则将面临天文数字的关税。

The financial promises give Mr. Trump the opportunity to flex his negotiating prowess in relatable terms and show off the splashy sums he is pulling into America, adding to the reality show intrigue of his trade agenda. As the Trump administration races to reach trade deals with dozens of countries ahead of a Thursday deadline, he has embraced a strategy that goes beyond opening international markets and reducing the U.S. trade deficit.
这些资金承诺为特朗普带来契机，以容易理解的方式展现自己的谈判技巧，炫耀他为美国吸引来巨额资金，为其贸易议程增添了真人秀般的吸引力。随着特朗普政府在周四的截止日期前加速与数十个国家达成贸易协议，他的策略已不止于开放国际市场和减少美国贸易逆差。

The tactic was on display last week as Mr. Trump and his team rolled out a blitz of new trade agreements before a self-imposed Aug. 1 deadline.
上周，在特朗普及其团队为赶在自定的8月1日截止日期前密集推出一系列新贸易协议时，这种策略就有所体现。

“South Korea is right now at a 25% Tariff, but they have an offer to buy down those Tariffs,” Mr. Trump wrote on social media on Wednesday. “I will be interested in hearing what that offer is.”
“韩国目前正面临25%的关税，但他们提出了降低关税的方案，”特朗普周三在社交媒体上写道，“我很想听听他们的方案是什么。”

The next day, Mr. Trump agreed to impose a tariff of 15 percent on imports from South Korea. The lower rate came after South Korea agreed to make $350 billion in investments in the United States and purchase $100 billion of liquefied natural gas.
第二天，特朗普同意对韩国进口商品征收15%的关税。这一较低税率的达成是因为韩国同意在美国投资3500亿美元，并购买1000亿美元的液化天然气。

South Korea is not the only country to make such pledges. Japan said it would establish a $550 billion fund for investments in the United States. The European Union indicated that its companies were poised to invest at least $600 billion.
并非只有韩国做出此类承诺。日本表示将设立一个5500亿美元的基金，用于在美国的投资。欧盟则表示，其企业准备投资至少6000亿美元。

To trade experts, the commitments raise the question of whether Mr. Trump is negotiating with trading partners or trade hostages.
在贸易专家看来，这些承诺引发了一个问题：特朗普是在与贸易伙伴谈判，还是在挟持贸易伙伴？

“This is no doubt a global shakedown of sorts,” said Scott Lincicome, the vice president of general economics at the right-leaning Cato Institute. “The fact is that Trump is using U.S. tariff policy to effectively force these terms upon less-than-willing participants.”
“这无疑是一种全球性的敲诈，”右翼的卡托研究所国民经济学副总裁斯科特·林奇科姆说。“事实是，特朗普正利用美国的关税政策，事实上等于将这些条款强加给那些不那么情愿的参与方。”

But the vague nature of these informal commitments suggests that other nations might also be looking for creative ways to escape Mr. Trump’s tariffs.
但这些非正式承诺的模糊性表明，其他国家或许也在寻找巧妙的方式来规避特朗普的关税。

Although tariffs are relatively straightforward to enforce, investment and purchase commitments are not as easily policed. The European Union, for instance, does not have the authority to dictate the type of investments that it has promised, and much of Japan’s pledged investments are coming in the form of loans.
尽管关税的执行相对直接，但投资和采购承诺的监管却没那么容易。例如，欧盟无权强制企业进行其所承诺的投资类型，而日本承诺的大部分投资将以贷款形式进行。

The investment announcements have also spurred confusion and lacked the usual detail that would accompany such pacts to avoid future disputes.
这些投资公告还引发了混乱，且缺乏此类协议通常会包含的详细信息，以避免未来纠纷。

A large majority of the $350 billion South Korean investment would take the form of loans and loan guarantees. South Korean officials expressed confusion over what U.S. officials meant when they said 90 percent of the profits from the investments would go to the American people.
韩国的3500亿美元投资中，绝大多数将以贷款和贷款担保的形式进行。美国官员称这些投资90%的利润将归美国人民所有，韩国官员对这个表述感到困惑。

A fact sheet announcing the European Union’s plans allowed for some wiggle room when it said that “E.U. companies have expressed interest in investing at least $600 billion” in “various sectors in the U.S.”
一份宣布欧盟计划的情况说明书留出了一定余地，称“欧盟企业已表示有兴趣在‘美国各行业’投资至少6000亿美元”。

“I think there remain a lot of questions, including by the countries who have announced commitments, as to what those commitments actually really mean,” said Michael Froman, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, who served as the top trade negotiator in the Obama administration. “Is it enforceable? If they don’t deliver a certain amount of investment over a particular period of time, do tariffs go back into place?”
“我认为，包括那些已宣布承诺的国家在内，很多人都对这些承诺的实际含义存在诸多疑问，”美国外交关系委员会主席、曾在奥巴马政府担任首席贸易谈判代表的迈克尔·弗罗曼说，“这些承诺是否具有约束力？如果这些国家在特定时期内没有完成一定数额的投资，关税会恢复吗？”

During Mr. Trump’s first term, the trade deal he struck with China included extensive commitments for Chinese purchases of American farm products that were never met. The agreement did have an enforcement mechanism, but it proved toothless.
特朗普在第一任期内与中国达成的贸易协议中包含了中国大量采购美国农产品的承诺，但这些承诺从未兑现。该协议虽设有执行机制，却被证明毫无效力。

Some of the initial investment pledges appear to be too big to be true. New data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that in 2024, foreign spending to acquire, start or expand U.S. businesses totaled $151 billion — a small fraction of the new commitments being announced. The $600 billion E.U. investment commitment matches the total value of the goods that the United States imported from Europe last year.
一些初步的投资承诺似乎大得离谱。美国经济分析局的新数据显示，2024年，外国用于收购、创办或扩张美国企业的支出总计1510亿美元——这跟新宣布的承诺比起来微不足道。欧盟6000亿美元的投资承诺，与美国去年从欧洲进口商品的总价值相当。

Although the United States has long been a magnet for foreign investment, the longer-term effects of making countries invest under duress are not clear.
尽管美国长期以来一直是吸引外国投资的磁石，但迫使各国在胁迫下进行投资的长期影响尚不明朗。

“This is the kind of deal you’d more expect to see from an emerging market that can’t attract capital on its merits,” said Aaron Bartnick, who worked in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy during the Biden administration. “And we may find over time that if the United States insists on acting like an emerging market, our trade partners may start treating us accordingly, with more onerous terms and less favorable rates that American companies and consumers are not accustomed to dealing with.”
“这种交易更像是你会在一个无法凭借自身优势吸引资本的新兴市场看到的，”曾在拜登政府时期任职于白宫科学和技术政策办公室的亚伦·巴特尼克说，“随着时间的推移，我们可能会发现，如果美国坚持以新兴市场的方式行事，我们的贸易伙伴可能也会开始以相应的方式对待我们——采用更苛刻的条款和更不利的税率，而这是美国企业和消费者不习惯应对的。”

Regardless of the economic implications, Mr. Trump’s tactics show no signs of abating, as he regularly claims more than $10 trillion — and climbing — in investments from foreign companies and countries.
无论其经济影响如何，特朗普的这些策略丝毫没有减弱的迹象，他频繁宣称外国企业和国家的投资已超过10万亿美元，且还在不断增加。

Daniel Ames, a professor at Columbia Business School who teaches negotiation strategy, said that Mr. Trump’s approach to trade deals appears to be drawn directly from his days as a developer and businessman. Mr. Trump became notorious for destabilizing his negotiating counterparts with severely low bids, dazzling sales pitches and an ability to capitalize on weakness to gain leverage.
哥伦比亚商学院教授、教授谈判策略的丹尼尔·埃姆斯表示，特朗普的贸易协议谈判方式，似乎直接源自他作为开发商和商人的经历。特朗普因在谈判中以极低报价扰乱对手、令人眼花缭乱的推销话术，以及善于利用对方弱点获取优势而闻名。

Mr. Ames noted, however, that countries like Japan, South Korea and the European Union might also be playing into Mr. Trump’s sense of vanity when they unveil whopping investment promises that might ultimately be hollow.
不过，埃姆斯指出，日本、韩国和欧盟等国家和地区在公布可能最终落空的巨额投资承诺时，或许也是在迎合特朗普的虚荣心。

“Donald Trump is a gifted storyteller, and I think when his counterparts recognize this, they can play to it,” Mr. Ames said. “If you’re negotiating with a narcissist, you look for ways to make them feel like they’ve won.”
“唐纳德·特朗普是个天才的故事讲述者，我认为当他的谈判对手意识到这一点时，他们就能加以利用，”埃姆斯说，“如果你在与一个自恋者谈判，你要想办法让他们觉得自己赢了。”