特朗普会成为“跛脚鸭”总统吗？
Congressional Republicans Begin to Look Beyond Trump
President Trump has always defied the laws of political gravity, seemingly impervious to setbacks that would sink any other figure and immune from the traditional ebb and flow of campaign cycles.
特朗普总统一向违背政治的引力法则，那些足以击垮任何其他政客的挫折似乎对他无效，而且他也不受传统竞选周期涨落的影响。
But his capitulation in the fight over releasing the Epstein files, and other recent developments, suggest that, when it comes to Congress, the president is subject to at least some of the same currents as his predecessors, as the first signs of his lame duck status emerge.
但他在公布爱泼斯坦档案一事上的屈服以及最近的其他事态发展表明，在国会层面，这位总统至少也受到一些与他前任相同的政治潮流影响，他作为“跛脚鸭”总统的初步迹象已经显现。
The willingness of congressional Republicans to defy Mr. Trump and back legislation requiring the disclosure of federal files on Jeffrey Epstein, the convicted sex offender and one-time Trump friend, was the clearest evidence yet that G.O.P. lawmakers are starting to look beyond Mr. Trump’s tenure to their self-preservation in midterm elections next year.
国会共和党人愿意违抗特朗普，支持相关立法，要求公开已定罪性犯罪者、特朗普曾经的朋友杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的联邦档案，是迄今最明显的证据，表明共和党议员开始把目光投向特朗普任期之后，优先考虑自己在明年中期选举中的自保。
There are other signs as well, notably the refusal by Senate Republicans to bow to Mr. Trump’s demand to gut the filibuster during the shutdown fight, and resistance in some states to his intense push to redraw House district maps to cement the G.O.P.’s hold and prevent a Democratic takeover that would imperil the president.
还有其他迹象，特别是参议院共和党人在政府停摆斗争中拒绝屈从特朗普废除“拖延战术”的要求。此外，特朗普积极推动众议院选区重划以求巩固共和党控制、防止民主党接管从而威胁总统，但遭到一些州的抵制。
Mr. Trump’s previously ironclad grip on the Republican Congress might even be weakening earlier than usual, before the more typical loss of power by a sitting president following midterm elections. Republicans are reacting in real time to the drubbing their party took in off-year elections earlier this month, defeats that were much worse than anticipated.
特朗普此前对共和党国会的铁腕掌控可能比通常情况更早出现松动——以往更多是在中期选举之后才出现总统失权的情况。共和党人正在对本月稍早的非大选年选举中本党的惨败做出实时反应，此次败选远超预期。
Polling also shows Mr. Trump and his party in a weakened state on a number of fronts headed into a 2026 election cycle that will determine control of Congress, with Americans citing rising costs and a dour view of the economy that Mr. Trump had pledged to fix to their benefit.
民调还显示，特朗普和共和党在多个领域开始显出疲态，在进入决定国会控制权的2026年选举周期之际，美国人普遍提到生活成本上升以及对经济的悲观看法——而特朗普曾承诺会为他们解决这些问题。
The president continues to hold an outsized grip on his party given his massive popularity with his far-right base, and observers are quick to caution that his political strength has survived through many episodes when it had appeared to be waning.
凭借极右翼票仓的极高支持率，总统仍然对共和党拥有超乎寻常的掌控力，观察人士也及时指出，他的政治力量曾屡次经历看似衰退的时刻，但还是存活了下来。
But even Republicans concede that there is a shift underway that was probably inevitable, given the history of presidential power and the rapidity with which it can dissipate.
但即使共和党人也承认，鉴于总统权力的历史规律及其迅速消散的特性，一场可能不可避免的转变正在发生。
“He’d be the outlier if it didn’t happen,” said Senator Kevin Cramer, Republican of North Dakota. “The closer you get to the midterms and then beyond, everybody is measuring their own state or congressional district, and maybe people are a little more independent.”
“如果这种事没发生，那他才是个例外，”北达科他州共和党参议员凯文·克拉默说。“越接近中期选举以及之后，每个人都在衡量自己所在的州或国会选区，也许大家会表现出更强的独立性。”
Representative Thomas Massie, the Kentucky Republican who forced the Epstein vote in the face of political threats and caustic personal attacks from the president, perhaps said it most succinctly as he warned his colleagues about the risks of standing with the president at all costs.
肯塔基州共和党众议员托马斯·马西不顾总统的政治威胁和恶毒人身攻击，强行推动爱泼斯坦法案投票，他对同僚的警告或许最简洁有力。
“The record of this vote will last longer than Donald Trump’s presidency,” Mr. Massie said on ABC’s “This Week,” reminding his colleagues that they should avoid putting themselves in the posture of agreeing “to protect pedophiles,” as he put it, because Mr. Trump insisted they do so.
“这次投票的记录会比唐纳德·特朗普的总统任期持续更久，”马西在ABC的《本周》节目中说，他提醒同僚不要因为特朗普坚持而把自己置于同意——用他的话说——“保护娈童者”的姿态。
Scores of them took heed as approval of Mr. Massie’s Epstein legislation became a certainty, and Mr. Trump found himself forced to back the legislation at the last minute rather than suffer a mortifying defeat and look even weaker.
数十名共和党议员听进了警告，马西的爱泼斯坦法案获得通过已成定局，特朗普在最后一刻被迫支持该法案，以免遭受耻辱性失败，从而进一步显露弱势。
Mr. Massie now faces a primary next year against a Trump-backed opponent. A victory by the incumbent would be a real blow to the president and undermine Mr. Trump’s most powerful weapon against wavering Republicans — the threat of endorsing a challenger in the primary elections that decide so many congressional races these days.
马西明年初选将面对特朗普支持的对手。如果在任者获胜，将是对总统的真正打击，并削弱特朗普对犹豫不决的共和党人最有力的武器——在决定众多国会席位的初选中支持挑战者的威胁。
Republicans will also be closely watching how Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, Republican of Georgia, fares after her dramatic break with Mr. Trump over his handling of the Epstein case and what she sees as the “America First” president’s undue emphasis on foreign affairs. Fellow Republicans will want to gauge if opposition to the president is really the political death knell it has long been perceived to be.
共和党人还将密切关注佐治亚州共和党众议员玛乔丽·泰勒·格林的命运——她在爱泼斯坦案处理问题上与特朗普戏剧性决裂，并认为这位“美国优先”总统对外交事务过于重视。她的共和党同僚会去衡量，反对总统是否真像长期以来认为的那样是政治生命的终结。
The president’s leverage could diminish even more as candidate filing deadlines and primaries pass next year.
随着明年候选人登记截止日期和初选的过去，总统的影响力可能进一步减弱。
“Unless the economy and his numbers rebound, Republicans are going to feel less willing to follow him blindly,” said David Axelrod, the political commentator and former top adviser to Barack Obama. “And that trend will accelerate once election filing periods pass in individual states and they are clear of potential primary challenges he holds over their heads.”
“除非经济形势和他的支持率回升，否则共和党人将越来越不愿盲目追随他，”政治评论员、前贝拉克·奥巴马高级顾问戴维·阿克塞尔罗德表示。“一旦各州选举报名期结束，共和党人摆脱了他可能施加的初选挑战威胁，这一趋势还会加速。”
The dynamic is all but certain to influence the debate next month on extending expiring health care subsidies that Democrats tried and failed to preserve as part of a deal to reopen the government. Mr. Trump and most Republicans oppose extending the tax breaks and have yet to propose an alternative plan. But several vulnerable G.O.P. lawmakers facing re-election next year are eager to vote in favor of some version of an extension for fear of being blamed by voters for soaring premiums.
这种态势几乎肯定会影响下个月关于延长即将到期的医保补贴的辩论，民主党人曾试图在政府重开协议中保留这些补贴，但未能成功。特朗普和大多数共和党人反对延长相关税收减免，且尚未提出替代方案。但有几位明年面临连任、地位不稳的共和党议员急于投票支持某种形式的延长方案，担心因保费飙升而遭到选民指责。
For now, the president’s weakened standing and this month’s off-year Republican defeats have helped contribute to rifts between the G.O.P. leaders of the House and Senate, who had previously been unified in speedily doing whatever Mr. Trump demanded.
目前，总统的地位削弱以及本月共和党在中期选举中的失利，已导致参众两院共和党领袖之间出现裂痕，此前他们一直团结一致，迅速执行特朗普的各项要求。
Looking down the road at potential Democratic gains, Senate Republicans refused to give up the filibuster, the procedural weapon they view as their most potent defense against Democratic control, in spite of demands from Mr. Trump, cheered on by Speaker Mike Johnson, to do so.
面对民主党可能取得的进展，尽管特朗普在众议院议长迈克·约翰逊的支持下要求废除“拖延战术”程序，但参议院共和党人拒绝放弃这一他们眼中抵御民主党掌控的最有力程序性武器。
Then, after Mr. Johnson called on Senate Republicans to amend the Epstein bill in line with changes sought by Mr. Trump, Senator John Thune, the South Dakota Republican and majority leader, quickly declined. The Senate ultimately sped the bill through without any sort of vote, let alone any amendments, eager to be rid of it but irritating the speaker in the process.
随后，在约翰逊呼吁参议院共和党人按照特朗普的要求修改爱泼斯坦相关法案后，南达科他州共和党参议员、多数党领袖约翰·图恩迅速拒绝。参议院最终未进行任何投票（更不用说提出修正案）就快速通过了该法案，急于摆脱这一议题，却在此过程中惹恼了议长。
Mr. Thune said the two chambers sometimes have different imperatives, though they are generally still in sync.
图恩表示，参众两院有时会有不同的优先事项，不过总体上仍保持一致。
The president continues to wield immense power, and can claim the firm allegiance of tens of millions of MAGA-aligned voters, a fact that gives him clout with Republicans and will continue to allow him to try to impose his will on Capitol Hill even as nervousness grows within his party about the coming elections.
总统仍拥有巨大权力，且能赢得数千万MAGA阵营选民的坚定拥护。这一事实赋予了他对共和党的影响力，即便党内对即将到来的选举日益担忧，他仍然能够继续试图将自己的意愿强加给国会山。
“At the end of the day, when there is a big vote and a close, narrow margin, he pulls it out,” Mr. Cramer said.
“归根结底，当遇到重大投票且票数接近时，他总能力挽狂澜，”克拉默表示。
The question for the president will be how long he can continue to do so as Republicans turn toward 2026, their own survival and a post-Trump world.
对总统而言，问题在于，随着共和党人将目光投向2026年、自身政治生存以及后特朗普时代，他这样的影响力还能持续多久。
